Let's do a little benchmarking of the things pending with Israel:
*** Before we had 3 or 4 prisoners --- now we have between 30(Hizbollah figure that Israel got extra 27) and 300 (Israeli figure). so we got two soldiers to liberate 4... now we need either more or some other way...
*** Before we wanted to liberate Shebaa---It is pending a Syrian approval not Israeli first... Now we didn't yet liberate it and its still awaiting a Syrian ok.
*** Before Nasrallah said we are doing reminder operations in Shebaa. Now even that is lost. No
more operations not even in Shebaa.
*** Before Hizbollah were in the south with the government blessing, now they are officially supposed to be out with a government and international warning.
*** Before we wanted to protect our land---They defended it but did not protect it from being occupied or the infrastructure being hit.
*** Before of Hizbollah had all the weapons ... now they have them less 4000 rocket (atleast)
*** Before they had more people accepting Hizbollah's arms, not knowing their full power... now most of those are scared or 100% loyal to Hizbollah knowing only Khaybar. (the 100% loyalty is not a plus as it will force other politicians to further buy people... so its a negative move to preserve any form of mouwateneyyi)
***Before we had a 'state' in the state for Hizbollah... now we only have their 'state' and an attempt for the Lebanese to restore the Lebanese state... still it doesnt mean the relation will be a 'state' in state one, it might become equal and respectable relation between two states after Nasrallah's speech reaffirming their three pillars as full (still not independent) 'state':
- Policy and foreign affairs - Weapons and their armed forces - Budget and Social welfare system
*** Before we wanted to reaffirm the right of return of the Palestinians, now we lost many of our negotiation power... so we reduced their chances.
I don't see anything victorious except from the military perspective were they managed not only to balance the terror but to further impose a greater one given the scale. I find it similar to the old story of the rabbit and the turtle, were the Israelis were doing nothing but chilling on their old victories while Hizbollah did a great job planning, training and preparing for any potential war.
However, if we benchmark this with 10% of the population who left, 1,000000 who became refugees, the dstruction of the infrastructure/trust in the country/trust in Hizbollah and the 1200 killed I think they might atleast balance...if not more