Thursday, August 31, 2006

What a day.... August 31

August 31 marks the 28th anniversary for the disappearance of Imam Sadre of the Amal Movement.
It also marks the death of princess Diana and Mother Therese along with the birth of Said Hassan Nasrallah.
I hope it won't mark the death of the currnet middle east be it the final deadline by the Security Council for Iran to stop its Uranium Enrichment.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Nasrallah wants a new national reconciliation government...

Nasrallah replied to those asking him to repsect Taef that they should accept to form a national reconciliation government and questioned how can Aoun who represent 70% of the christian voters not be represented in the government:
1- If Nasrallah didn't know, he is in the government and he didn't complain that Aoun is not in it until he became his partner. His party gave the government a vote of confidence being in it.
2- We are not in a proportional representation governmental system (anyway this concept does not exist so far).
3- In a democracy, a Parliament majority has the 'majority', so it should have the majority in the cabinet... it happens to be two thirds in Lebanon.
4- Lahoud represents (-1%) probably of the Lebanese and still he has a quota in the government, isn't that also against proper representation.

Monday, August 28, 2006

Nasrallah to NTV: We can make a military coup-deta at any time...

Although he mentioned that they won't, Nasrallah replied to those asking him if he has plans to form a Shiite State in Lebanon that he had the power to make a coup-deta after the Syrian withdrawal and can still do it now... I don't know if he meant answering no or maybe... but it doensn't look very promising if they thought about it...

Saturday, August 26, 2006

A new UN resolution for Shebaa preceded by a prisoner's swap will dismantle Hizbollah politically...

Hizbollah mentioned that a prisoner swap is being negotiated now. If done along with a UN resolution to consider Shebaa as a No-Man's Land under a special UN force (check below), will make Hizbollah almost dismantled politically. The only thing they can use their weapons for is to return the Palestinians to their land being the only pending issue with Israel.

All files between Lebanon and Israel, except for Palestinian’s right of return, will be accomplished.
If Hizbollah says they need their weapon as a deterrent power against Israel, we can send them some pictures of the recent war for them to wake up...
If they want to remain as the offense line for Tahran and Syria, they can do so in Golan with the blessing of all Lebanese...

Related blog entry:
A new UN resolution for Shebaa farms and related lands

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Why would we need weapons above Litani...

Why would we need Hizbollah weapons north of Litani... Resisting what above Litani... internal constituencies... or maybe resisting Syria...

Well International community and Israel (since they are two entities) want the weapons north of Litani or with the army... to secure Israel's northern borders.

We want the weapons south of Litani or with the army... I dont want to see weapons in dahye anymore or in downtown... or who knows under the streets in some Hizbollah tunnel...

Saturday, August 19, 2006

Financial Donations... Men Ayn laka Hatha...

The Lebanese government and according to the Lebanese law and money laundry applicable laws should ask (or question) Hizbollah from were did they get their money?

Is it clean money and why wasn't it entered through the proper channels (ie banking sector)?

Most probably its clean from the Iranian petrolium revenue that increased due to the war... So its more like pay back.

THey say Amrika elshaytan elakbar and they use their money...

Hezbollah who is an organization that is totally anti-american is paying its 'people' who got their houses damaged during the recent war $12,000 US Dollars. Apparently, although they are totally against the states, they can't trust the L.L.

Friday, August 18, 2006

Yes to special Relations between the Republic of Lebanon and the informal Republic of Hizbollah...

Although it is still an informal republic, a lot can be done with the republic of Hizbollah in regards to:
1- coordinating the foreign policy efforts of the two countries
2- military coordination and potential supply of weapons to the Lebanese army
3- economic support to Lebanon form the Hizbollah's budget that was annonced few days ago

Also, there should be an ambassador from Lebanon (or maybe a decision maker) in Hizbollah just like they have two cabinet ministers in the Lebanese government.

If they can manage to fix their borders, it would be a plus...

Thursday, August 17, 2006

You can never win from a war... you can only win it

Let's do a little benchmarking of the things pending with Israel:

*** Before we had 3 or 4 prisoners --- now we have between 30(Hizbollah figure that Israel got extra 27) and 300 (Israeli figure). so we got two soldiers to liberate 4... now we need either more or some other way...

*** Before we wanted to liberate Shebaa---It is pending a Syrian approval not Israeli first... Now we didn't yet liberate it and its still awaiting a Syrian ok.

*** Before Nasrallah said we are doing reminder operations in Shebaa. Now even that is lost. No
more operations not even in Shebaa.

*** Before Hizbollah were in the south with the government blessing, now they are officially supposed to be out with a government and international warning.

*** Before we wanted to protect our land---They defended it but did not protect it from being occupied or the infrastructure being hit.

*** Before of Hizbollah had all the weapons ... now they have them less 4000 rocket (atleast)

*** Before they had more people accepting Hizbollah's arms, not knowing their full power... now most of those are scared or 100% loyal to Hizbollah knowing only Khaybar. (the 100% loyalty is not a plus as it will force other politicians to further buy people... so its a negative move to preserve any form of mouwateneyyi)

***Before we had a 'state' in the state for Hizbollah... now we only have their 'state' and an attempt for the Lebanese to restore the Lebanese state... still it doesnt mean the relation will be a 'state' in state one, it might become equal and respectable relation between two states after Nasrallah's speech reaffirming their three pillars as full (still not independent) 'state':
- Policy and foreign affairs - Weapons and their armed forces - Budget and Social welfare system
*** Before we wanted to reaffirm the right of return of the Palestinians, now we lost many of our negotiation power... so we reduced their chances.

I don't see anything victorious except from the military perspective were they managed not only to balance the terror but to further impose a greater one given the scale. I find it similar to the old story of the rabbit and the turtle, were the Israelis were doing nothing but chilling on their old victories while Hizbollah did a great job planning, training and preparing for any potential war.

However, if we benchmark this with 10% of the population who left, 1,000000 who became refugees, the dstruction of the infrastructure/trust in the country/trust in Hizbollah and the 1200 killed I think they might atleast balance...if not more

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Any Dell laptop can ignite the country???

The current fragile cease fire can be lost as a result of a small Dell Laptop."Dell Inc. said yesterday that it would recall 4.1 million lithium-ion batteries for laptop computers after several dangerous incidents in which the batteries burst into flames and damaged other property." according to Washington Post today.

I think the governmnet of Lebanon should also ban the use of Dell laptops below the Litani river as not to confuse it with bombs used in the battle field. lol

The picture above from the NY Times shows that the explosion might be big.

Can not disarm Hizbollah... Immitate them

I think one of the missing things in dealing with the current situation with Hizbollah is that every body is sitting back and criticizing their current stand on issues.

I suggest the following:

1- The government should start having its own poltical plan, vision, paper and agenda...The seven points of Siniora are among the first after-Syria foreign policy attempts of Lebanon. Similar but more powerful attempts should be made.

2- On the social level: The government should not accept that Hezbollah support 15,000 homes explecitly declaring that the government can't do that. All necessary funds should be made available and a full reconstruction/transparent/quick plan should be done soon.

3- The army should work towards the creation of a special force: "maghawir eljanoub"
i- get the needed training for atleast 1000 army man with special Hezbollah -like training.
ii-get the necessary weapons for that team (Similar to Hezbollah's arms)
iii-get the required resources for the establishment, enhancment and organizing such a force that should be the corner stone for the Lebanese army's defence strategy against Israel/Syria be it our direct neighbors.
iv-This force can later on ask to get exclusivity of weapons and membership where the resistance will be redundant.

Alternatively, if this is not doable, the government entities should form a para-military coalition to create a national resistance with the direct support of the government. They can distribute the areas of the south between them or run all as one entity, National resistance or Heizbollah and Lebanese resistanceThis will result in a political change, social trust, and defense strategy.

Sunday, August 13, 2006

UN Resolution 1701...

Observations and comments:
1- Hezbollah is responsible for the conflict...I agree as they initiated it all. Israel's reaction wasn't justifiable and very exagerrated in regards to kidnapping two of its soldiers. Yet, Hezbollah started, and hadn't they started, nothing might have been done, atleast without a justification from the Lebanese side. The Lebanese side violated the 'unwritten truce' so their reaction doesn't have to be equal.
2- Asking Hezbollah to stop all its operations while asking Israel to stop only its offensive operations means that we might witness a situation similar to the one in 1982 were Israel can conitune to occupy land by walking around. Any attempt to halt it is considered as a violation to the UN resolution.
3- Sending the army to the south... well after the 350 soldier kidnapped by Israel, we might be heading towards a case, were any Israeli violation, would result in holding 15,000 army men as prisoners, as I doubt they can do anything to Israel other than coffee as they did earlier during the current war...
4- Disarming Hezbollah should not in anyway mean returning the weapons to Iran, Russia or Syria. On the contrary: Khaybar1 or Zelzal or all the weapons will be very useful to the Army's use. They might need to change the names though.

Friday, August 11, 2006

Lessons Learned

We learned a lot from this war:
1- 10% of the Lebanese left the country
2- More than 1,000 killed
3- More than one million displaced
4- Lots of destruction to the country's infrastructre estimate: Billions of Dollars.

Can we consider we won the war... What kind of objectives did we have... Liberate Kuntar, free the land in Shebba, and keep the arms of the 'resistance'...Did we accomplish any...?