New Leb BLOG

So the current government is not constitutional...

2006-11-20T09:08:00.000+02:00

If the current government is 'not constitutional' since only one sect withdrew from it.

Then why did they bother to do all the fight and debate about lobbying to have one-third (mu3attil) of the government as a guarantee if leaving the governmnet was a garantee for them...
If anyway without the one-third they can topple the government just if they resign then why do they need it in the first place...

The current status of the government is that it is constitutional, legal and not as legitimate. Just like Lahoud...

Are we against the return of the Lebanese detainees...

2006-09-17T10:14:00.000+03:00

Following the Hibollah logic. The demands of March 14 to apply the Taef, including dismantling all militias, are the ones requested by Israel and accordingly should be condemned.

Now, Israel is accepting to negotiate to return the Lebanese detainees and prisoners. Do we oppose it, as it is an Israeli demand now???

Resistance and Electricity

2006-09-07T10:03:00.000+03:00

Usually electric resistance is the act of opposition to "flow of electric current"... It is never the case that resistance can ever generate electrcicity and actually oppose it...

When you steal from a mafia, expect to be killed

2006-09-06T10:07:00.000+03:00

Unlike what Hizbollah claimed, the scale of the Israeli reply was expected

If you ever think of stealing from a mafia, don’t expect few years of imprisonment according to applicable law as mafias have their own laws they abide by and mostly impose. Now, if you hear about someone who was killed by the mafia for stealing and you steal few weeks after him, then you mean it.

Conflict in Israel/Palestine
Palestinian activists attacked a military point killing two Israeli soldiers and kidnapping one Annahar reported on June 26, 2006. A series of events followed from the Israeli government/mafia that went as follows (‘summer rain’ operation):
1- Olmert refused to negotiate for the release of the kidnapped soldier threatening that his government can reach the Palestinians even in far places while Washington saw the problem in Damascus[i]
2- Israeli tanks invaded south of the Gaza strip in a “small scale” operation.[ii]
3- Israeli jets flied above the Presidential palace of Bashar Assad in Damascus, kidnapped a Palestinian Minister and placed its soldiers on the Lebanese southern borders in a state of alert preparing only for a potential attack from Hezbollah.[iii]
4- Israel kidnapped one third of the Hammas Palestinian government and one forth of the Parliament.[iv]
5- Olmert commanded that no one in Gaza should sleep saying that the solution to the problem is in Syria.[v]
6- Israeli government explicitly threatens to hit Syria and Hamas leadership in it.[vi]
7- Olmert expects a long war.[vii]
8- Levny, the Israeli foreign minister, threatens Syria.[viii]
9- Full scale Israeli attack on the residential areas in Gaza.[ix]
10- Israel calls some of its reservists and expands its attack.[x]
11- Israel enters middle of Gaza after its decision to expand the operations.[xi]
12- Palestinian President threatens to resign to embarrass Hamas read the Assafir front page on July 12, 2006[xii]

Regional situation
Iran’s situation went as follows:
1- Iran’s President resents the Israeli crimes and threatens that the revenge of God will occur in the hands of the nations.[xiii]
2- Washington: July 12 is a key date for Iran to answer, threatening to go back to the Security Council with a huge pressure.[xiv]
3- Najad mentions a strong will to remove the Israeli regime warning from the increase in the anger of the ‘people of the region’ as a result of the Israeli crimes that might result in a ‘huge explosion’ whose consequences will not be restricted to the region.[xv]

Internal situation
1- Sfeir from the States: Hizbollah’s arms are not acceptable and they are moderated from Syria and Iran, read the Annahar front page on July 2, 2006[xvi]
2- The Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs who belongs to the Nasrallah-Berri coalition said: “No Lebanese group will give Israel an excuse (zareeea or mubarrir) to enter Lebanon”[xvii]
3- Israel puts the region at the edge of a broad regional deterioration read the front page of the Assafir newspaper on July 4, 2006. In the same issue, the editorial read: “One Israeli soldier VS people, the nation, the whole world.
4- In July 9, 2006: Hariri and Nasrallah meeting reflected their fear from some currents in Israel to move the tension with Palestine towards a regional tension.[xviii]
5- On July 10, 2006 the Annahar reported that in the meeting between Hariri and Nasrallah they talked about their will to take all necessary precautions from any attempt to expand the Israeli aggression in Palestine to Lebanon..[xix]

The (truthful promise) operation:
Israel ‘replies’ to one of the most painful hits from Hizbollah to the Israeli army since 2000. “Hizbollah kidnapped two soldiers and killed eight”, Annahar reported in its lead article on July 13, 2006 [xx].

By this operation, Hizbollah did an unprecedented violation to the blue line (not in Shebaa) and initiated a quasi-Palestinian operation knowing its consequences that were mentioned in the media and by many of its leaders / allies.

Hizbollah claimed more than a month later that they didn’t know (any of the leaders of the group) that Israel will do what it did, not even a one percent chance.

Knowing how Israel replied to the Palestinian operation, the warnings of a potential regional aggression, the Iran deadline, and the pressure on Syria among other variables make the truthful promise truthful to all but to Lebanon.

[i] Annahar, June 27, 2006
[ii] Annahar, June 28, 2006
[iii] Annahar, June 29, 2006
[iv] Annahar, June 30, 2006
[v] Annahar, July 3, 2006
[vi] Assafir, July 4, 2006
[vii] Annahar, July 5, 2006
[viii] Annahar, July 6, 2006
[ix] Annahar, July 7, 2006
[x] Annahar, July 9, 2006
[xi] Annahar, July 12, 2006
[xii]Assafir, July 12, 2006
[xiii] Assafir, July 4, 2006
[xiv] Assafir, July 4, 2006
[xv] Annahar, July 9, 2006
[xvi] Annahar, July 2, 2006
[xvii] Annahar, July 3, 2006
[xviii] Assafir, July 10, 2006
[xix] Annahar, July 10, 2006
[xx] Annahar, July 13, 2006

What a day.... August 31

2006-08-31T10:17:00.000+03:00

August 31 marks the 28th anniversary for the disappearance of Imam Sadre of the Amal Movement.
It also marks the death of princess Diana and Mother Therese along with the birth of Said Hassan Nasrallah.
I hope it won't mark the death of the currnet middle east be it the final deadline by the Security Council for Iran to stop its Uranium Enrichment.

Nasrallah wants a new national reconciliation government...

2006-08-29T07:55:00.000+03:00

Nasrallah replied to those asking him to repsect Taef that they should accept to form a national reconciliation government and questioned how can Aoun who represent 70% of the christian voters not be represented in the government:
1- If Nasrallah didn't know, he is in the government and he didn't complain that Aoun is not in it until he became his partner. His party gave the government a vote of confidence being in it.
2- We are not in a proportional representation governmental system (anyway this concept does not exist so far).
3- In a democracy, a Parliament majority has the 'majority', so it should have the majority in the cabinet... it happens to be two thirds in Lebanon.
4- Lahoud represents (-1%) probably of the Lebanese and still he has a quota in the government, isn't that also against proper representation.

Nasrallah to NTV: We can make a military coup-deta at any time...

2006-08-28T12:23:00.000+03:00

Although he mentioned that they won't, Nasrallah replied to those asking him if he has plans to form a Shiite State in Lebanon that he had the power to make a coup-deta after the Syrian withdrawal and can still do it now... I don't know if he meant answering no or maybe... but it doensn't look very promising if they thought about it...

A new UN resolution for Shebaa preceded by a prisoner's swap will dismantle Hizbollah politically...

2006-08-26T12:26:00.000+03:00

Hizbollah mentioned that a prisoner swap is being negotiated now. If done along with a UN resolution to consider Shebaa as a No-Man's Land under a special UN force (check below), will make Hizbollah almost dismantled politically. The only thing they can use their weapons for is to return the Palestinians to their land being the only pending issue with Israel.

All files between Lebanon and Israel, except for Palestinian’s right of return, will be accomplished.
If Hizbollah says they need their weapon as a deterrent power against Israel, we can send them some pictures of the recent war for them to wake up...
If they want to remain as the offense line for Tahran and Syria, they can do so in Golan with the blessing of all Lebanese...

Related blog entry:
A new UN resolution for Shebaa farms and related lands http://newleb.blogspot.com/2006/04/new-un-resolution-for-shebaa-farms-and.html

Why would we need weapons above Litani...

2006-08-24T08:13:00.000+03:00

Why would we need Hizbollah weapons north of Litani... Resisting what above Litani... internal constituencies... or maybe resisting Syria...

Well International community and Israel (since they are two entities) want the weapons north of Litani or with the army... to secure Israel's northern borders.

We want the weapons south of Litani or with the army... I dont want to see weapons in dahye anymore or in downtown... or who knows under the streets in some Hizbollah tunnel...

Financial Donations... Men Ayn laka Hatha...

2006-08-19T10:37:00.000+03:00

The Lebanese government and according to the Lebanese law and money laundry applicable laws should ask (or question) Hizbollah from were did they get their money?

Is it clean money and why wasn't it entered through the proper channels (ie banking sector)?

Most probably its clean from the Iranian petrolium revenue that increased due to the war... So its more like pay back.

THey say Amrika elshaytan elakbar and they use their money...

2006-08-19T07:57:00.000+03:00

Hezbollah who is an organization that is totally anti-american is paying its 'people' who got their houses damaged during the recent war $12,000 US Dollars. Apparently, although they are totally against the states, they can't trust the L.L.

Yes to special Relations between the Republic of Lebanon and the informal Republic of Hizbollah...

2006-08-18T13:54:00.000+03:00

Although it is still an informal republic, a lot can be done with the republic of Hizbollah in regards to:
1- coordinating the foreign policy efforts of the two countries
2- military coordination and potential supply of weapons to the Lebanese army
3- economic support to Lebanon form the Hizbollah's budget that was annonced few days ago

Also, there should be an ambassador from Lebanon (or maybe a decision maker) in Hizbollah just like they have two cabinet ministers in the Lebanese government.

If they can manage to fix their borders, it would be a plus...

You can never win from a war... you can only win it

2006-08-17T09:02:00.000+03:00

Let's do a little benchmarking of the things pending with Israel:

*** Before we had 3 or 4 prisoners --- now we have between 30(Hizbollah figure that Israel got extra 27) and 300 (Israeli figure). so we got two soldiers to liberate 4... now we need either more or some other way...

*** Before we wanted to liberate Shebaa---It is pending a Syrian approval not Israeli first... Now we didn't yet liberate it and its still awaiting a Syrian ok.

*** Before Nasrallah said we are doing reminder operations in Shebaa. Now even that is lost. No
more operations not even in Shebaa.

*** Before Hizbollah were in the south with the government blessing, now they are officially supposed to be out with a government and international warning.

*** Before we wanted to protect our land---They defended it but did not protect it from being occupied or the infrastructure being hit.

*** Before of Hizbollah had all the weapons ... now they have them less 4000 rocket (atleast)

*** Before they had more people accepting Hizbollah's arms, not knowing their full power... now most of those are scared or 100% loyal to Hizbollah knowing only Khaybar. (the 100% loyalty is not a plus as it will force other politicians to further buy people... so its a negative move to preserve any form of mouwateneyyi)

***Before we had a 'state' in the state for Hizbollah... now we only have their 'state' and an attempt for the Lebanese to restore the Lebanese state... still it doesnt mean the relation will be a 'state' in state one, it might become equal and respectable relation between two states after Nasrallah's speech reaffirming their three pillars as full (still not independent) 'state':
- Policy and foreign affairs - Weapons and their armed forces - Budget and Social welfare system
*** Before we wanted to reaffirm the right of return of the Palestinians, now we lost many of our negotiation power... so we reduced their chances.

I don't see anything victorious except from the military perspective were they managed not only to balance the terror but to further impose a greater one given the scale. I find it similar to the old story of the rabbit and the turtle, were the Israelis were doing nothing but chilling on their old victories while Hizbollah did a great job planning, training and preparing for any potential war.

However, if we benchmark this with 10% of the population who left, 1,000000 who became refugees, the dstruction of the infrastructure/trust in the country/trust in Hizbollah and the 1200 killed I think they might atleast balance...if not more

Any Dell laptop can ignite the country???

2006-08-15T23:54:00.000+03:00

The current fragile cease fire can be lost as a result of a small Dell Laptop."Dell Inc. said yesterday that it would recall 4.1 million lithium-ion batteries for laptop computers after several dangerous incidents in which the batteries burst into flames and damaged other property." according to Washington Post today.

I think the governmnet of Lebanon should also ban the use of Dell laptops below the Litani river as not to confuse it with bombs used in the battle field. lol

The picture above from the NY Times shows that the explosion might be big.

Can not disarm Hizbollah... Immitate them

2006-08-15T23:05:00.000+03:00

I think one of the missing things in dealing with the current situation with Hizbollah is that every body is sitting back and criticizing their current stand on issues.

I suggest the following:

1- The government should start having its own poltical plan, vision, paper and agenda...The seven points of Siniora are among the first after-Syria foreign policy attempts of Lebanon. Similar but more powerful attempts should be made.

2- On the social level: The government should not accept that Hezbollah support 15,000 homes explecitly declaring that the government can't do that. All necessary funds should be made available and a full reconstruction/transparent/quick plan should be done soon.

3- The army should work towards the creation of a special force: "maghawir eljanoub"
i- get the needed training for atleast 1000 army man with special Hezbollah -like training.
ii-get the necessary weapons for that team (Similar to Hezbollah's arms)
iii-get the required resources for the establishment, enhancment and organizing such a force that should be the corner stone for the Lebanese army's defence strategy against Israel/Syria be it our direct neighbors.
iv-This force can later on ask to get exclusivity of weapons and membership where the resistance will be redundant.

Alternatively, if this is not doable, the government entities should form a para-military coalition to create a national resistance with the direct support of the government. They can distribute the areas of the south between them or run all as one entity, National resistance or Heizbollah and Lebanese resistanceThis will result in a political change, social trust, and defense strategy.

UN Resolution 1701...

2006-08-13T23:51:00.000+03:00

Observations and comments:
1- Hezbollah is responsible for the conflict...I agree as they initiated it all. Israel's reaction wasn't justifiable and very exagerrated in regards to kidnapping two of its soldiers. Yet, Hezbollah started, and hadn't they started, nothing might have been done, atleast without a justification from the Lebanese side. The Lebanese side violated the 'unwritten truce' so their reaction doesn't have to be equal.
2- Asking Hezbollah to stop all its operations while asking Israel to stop only its offensive operations means that we might witness a situation similar to the one in 1982 were Israel can conitune to occupy land by walking around. Any attempt to halt it is considered as a violation to the UN resolution.
3- Sending the army to the south... well after the 350 soldier kidnapped by Israel, we might be heading towards a case, were any Israeli violation, would result in holding 15,000 army men as prisoners, as I doubt they can do anything to Israel other than coffee as they did earlier during the current war...
4- Disarming Hezbollah should not in anyway mean returning the weapons to Iran, Russia or Syria. On the contrary: Khaybar1 or Zelzal or all the weapons will be very useful to the Army's use. They might need to change the names though.

Lessons Learned

2006-08-11T23:56:00.000+03:00

We learned a lot from this war:
1- 10% of the Lebanese left the country
2- More than 1,000 killed
3- More than one million displaced
4- Lots of destruction to the country's infrastructre estimate: Billions of Dollars.

Can we consider we won the war... What kind of objectives did we have... Liberate Kuntar, free the land in Shebba, and keep the arms of the 'resistance'...Did we accomplish any...?

Not legal barely legitimate...

2006-06-19T11:49:00.000+03:00

Arms of Hezbollah and according to the Lebanese Law are not legal and their legitimacy is a direct result of the political cover they have from the government and due to their power and the fact that it is not an easy task to disarm them.In other words, according to the law now, Hezbollah is a militia outside the scope of government and the Judiciary system in Lebanon can issue arrest warrants for any of its leadership except for the parliament members and cabinet ministers who have special immunity which should be forwarded to the Lebanese Parliament for action.

Loyalty to a different country is treason...

2006-06-03T13:53:00.000+03:00

Hezbollah's commitment, being political and more dangerously religious to Iran, along with them being on their payroll, is according to the Lebanese law, high treason...

legalizing prostitution in Lebanon -- not for politicians

2006-05-26T13:51:00.000+03:00

I think it is time to invest in red-light district like area in Lebanon to be an equivalent hub in the Middle East.

'Resisting militia': What for and till when...

2006-05-16T19:46:00.000+03:00

Every movement or resistance should have a clear objective.
It is time for the Lebanese to request from Hizbollah a clear statement on what are they resisting for, their scope, and until when are they going to resist.

The paper from Hizbollah's side should include a clear objective(s).

It has been six years now and they are playing on several objectives... Liberating Shebaa farms, liberating the Lebanese detainees, balance of terror, a defence strategy for Lebanon...

Let them write down why are they still armed and let all the Lebanese think of alternatives / get convinced with their objectives.

Either resistance or a political group / socialist country in country

2006-05-12T13:43:00.000+03:00

An entity that has its own social institutions, political party and armed forces is more like a country than a resistance. Hizbollah should decide to be like the army, in parallel or a political entity or social welfare system to the deprived people mainly of the south...

Hizbollah is the primary defence line for Iran says Iran senior political figure...

2006-05-11T15:44:00.000+03:00

What a day... An Iranian political figure says that Hizbollah is their primary defence line... Very promising

70% or 7%...Aoun in action

2006-05-11T10:33:00.000+03:00

Former Army General current MP Michel Aoun, have been saying for long that he represents 70% of the christians. When yesterday he called his supporters to join for a huge anti-government demo that was organized by syndicates and in practice with all pro-Syrian groups and Aoun, the whole demonstration managed to get some 250,000 according to Minister of Interior and 500,000 to the orgnizers.

The political demo. didnt manage to attract more people raising questions about the actual representation of General Aoun, did he mean he repreasents 7%....

Potential two big non-sectarian parties...

2006-05-08T12:25:00.000+03:00

After the two big line-ups of Bristol and Ain Tine in 2004-2005.

2006 is witnessing today the potential of having two nation-wide parties.

March 14 parliament majority are discussing for the first time the issue of their internal structure and a political agenda.
The opposition, which now includes a big Christian party (Aoun) is organizing a meeting to set its membership, poltical paper and name.

In few years if these two blocs manage to stay till the 2009 parliamentary elections, we might witness the start of bi-party structure in Lebanon.

A new UN resolution for Shebaa farms and related lands

2006-04-28T19:36:00.000+03:00

The UN should declare Shebaa as a No-Man's Land.

The resolution would cover:

1- Marking the land that is of conflict between Lebanon and Syria and still occupied by Israel.
2- Request from all people in that land to evacuate it as it is to become under the supervision of the UN until the borders between Lebanon and Syria are clearly marked.
3- Meanwhile, a special UN force (not the UNIFIL) should stay in that land until the process of drawing the borders is finalized.
4- Continue to implement 1559, as to all its articles including disarming all armed militias.

Why not in the army??

2006-04-24T07:45:00.000+03:00

UN officials are trying to push towards integrating Hizbollah in the army, which is nothing but putting the whole problem under the ashes.

Hizbollah's structure can't be integrated in the army. A militia structure cant be part of the army, atleast not if its leadership is'nt in the army.

Militants of Hizbollah believe in 'wilayat el fakih' which makes it almost impossible for them to be loyal to any institution or chain of command, if / when they get a 'takleef shar3ee' (religious order).

More over, a funny but true comment in March 2006 came from the US representative to the UN, Mr. Bulton saying that integrating Hizbollah in the army will result in US paying to the Lebanese government to pay for Iran militants (reducing the pressure on Iran's budget) hinting that if the integration takes place, the militants will stay loyal to Iran.

The reconstruction of the state starts with Yoga...

2006-04-19T09:02:00.000+03:00

The Lebanese Republic has lost its Constitutional Council since October 2004.

It is the highest Council that ensures the constitutionality of laws and is the corner stone to rebuild anything including institutions and the state...

I think we should request the UN Security Council to form a fact finding mission to search for the members of the constitutional council. When they do, which is for sure, we can request them to start taking Yoga lessons as they are supposed to be "sehraneen 3ala ehtiram eldustoor". Imagine if they are doing their job literally and they are still sehraneen since the constitution was violated in October 2004...

Is it possible that we just lost all our International support??

2006-04-18T21:06:00.000+03:00

The UN Security Council voted on its 1669th resolution for the situation in Congo.

This made us lose our collection items: 1559, 1595, 1644, 1664.

No for Sabbeh Resignation...

2006-04-17T10:14:00.000+03:00

I request from the Prime Minister to reject the resignation that the Minister of Interior Sabeh submitted to him 67 days earlier.

I am obliged to request so, as I just noticed a banner next to the PM house, requesting so and signed by the "Residents of Beirut". Being a resident myself, now I dont have a choice but to request what ALL THE RESIDENTS OF BEIRUT REQUESTED.
Probably, they had some sort of General assembly and they all decided so.... who knows

No to a joint Lebanese-International Tribunal, Yes to International with Lebanese Liaison

2006-04-08T01:22:00.000+03:00

After the series of unjust decisions taken by the Lebanese judiciary, many wanted to give the judiciary a chance for reforming it and proving it credible by including in the international tribunal for the assassination of Hariri.

Well, thats not very promising after the clear political decision of Lebanese court to clear and free Sultan Abu el3aynaein (previously sentenced with death penalty) as it was a political decision to do so...

In the case of Samir Geagea and Duneyyi events, the courts decision was not altered, rather a Pardon was passed in the Parliament for that purpose. Another way would be a special Presidential Pardon.

Now, for the International tribunal for the assassination of Hariri, Lebanese judges, being still politically under pressure, should be excluded from this court.

All judges should be international, with only a Lebanese judge acting as a liaison between the international tribunal and Lebanon.

Lebanese judiciary ... another political institution???

2006-04-07T13:44:00.000+03:00

Sultan Abou El3aynein, from being a criminal with death sentence running away from the government and hiding in the refugee camps.

To the spokesperson on behalf of Palestinean arms with the Lebanese Authority, (potentially the PA future ambassador to Lebanon) after he surrendered to the judge of his case and got instantly a pardon for new lack of evidence.... that supposedly was there in end of 99...

What a way to rebuild the state

Parliament Majority 72 going to 70 ??

2006-04-03T11:58:00.000+03:00

The main institutional lock to the come back of the Syrian Hegemony is the Parliament majority.
Nearly one month prior to the death of late MP Edmond Naim, Lebanonwire (e-newswire) reported that his health is in critical situation. His death resulted in reducing the majority bloc to 71 MPs.

Few days ago, Lebanonwire reported that an MP from Baabda-Aley is having a serious medical illness and added that his situation is very critical.

This is a very alarming indicator, as no one should accept another concession even if elections might lead to losing the position.

Going to 70 MPs would imply that the Syrian hegemony is 5-MPs away from coming back.

Current TOTAL 71 MPs /of 128

minimum 65 MPs for a majority

PM Saniora: Slave to a slave ???

2006-03-30T08:33:00.000+03:00

I personally do not agree with many things Saniora stands for, or stood for.

But, currently he is the only representative of the Executive authority in Lebanon who is both Legal and Legitimate. Consequently, I find it an insult from all the 'dialogue poles' to request from the Prime Minister to go meet with the Syrian authority after he was publically called a slave to a slave.

I think the two options the 'poles' should have agreed on as a pre-requisite of such a move:

1) the government of Lebanon fully endorses a request from the Syrian government to appologize from the Lebanese, as the insults came from their President and not free press.

2) the current pro-Syria MPs step down from the cabinet or remove the confidence from the government for having at the top of it a slave to a slave.

They can eithr endorse the statement of him being a slave or resent it... but not ignore it while asking the PM to go meet them.

A demonstration

2006-03-29T09:22:00.000+03:00

NOT August 7, 2001 in Beirut...

NOT February 5, 2006 in Beirut...

All the pictures are for a prostest that took place few days ago in France...
by Students..

A national revolution or just a ‘disturbance’ to the Syrian control: What is March 14 going to be?

2006-03-28T11:05:00.001+03:00

First,
It is important to look in to the 2004 Orange revolution of Ukraine and learn from it.
Former President Yanukovych’s pro-Russian party is regaining the first place in the exit polls of the current parliamentary elections. It is important to look into the indicators of such a come back.
Yushchenko (Orange President) removed Tymoshenko (Orange prime minister) earlier last year after they both accused each other of corruption.
Yanukovych (the pro-Russian) had an easier task: blocking the progress of his opponents.
Broad coalitions are to be normally re-divided if they don’t work on a shared agenda. Such coalitions previously had different agendas and only shared the same priority for a while.

Second,
In Lebanon, it is not true to consider that the Syrians were controlling Lebanon since 1976 without admitting that their control suffered many ‘disturbances’. For example, in 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon gaining control over the Parliament, electing a new President and signing the famous May 17 agreement among other things. The Syrian loss was considered irreversible as Lebanon entered a new era according to many. The Syrians proved later this to be wrong for some 22 years after their powerfull comeback.

The point is, Syria is out due to the people’s pressure along with International pressure and other variables. The anti-Syrian bloc (March14 bloc) secured a majority in the parliament. They and only they ensure the institutional lock to that Syrian control.

However, from the Ukrainian example, we should note that it is not just a game to put the people in the streets, promise them issues and then forget about them due to electoral interests, personal agendas, or being under attack.

This works for a year or maybe two, but not for long.

Now, it is up to the March 14 leadership to decide what they want. Listen to the March14 people, be critical about their own performance and secure the end of the Syrian control. Or, stay distracted with several agendas and make the current Syrian withdrawal only a ‘disturbance’ in the Syrian control over Lebanon rather than an end to it.

On Ukrainian elections:
Ruling Party Suffers Rout in Ukraine: Pro-Russian Group Leads in Exit Polls

Lets Merge the army with Hizbollah....Jumblatt said

2006-03-28T08:36:00.000+03:00

After UN envoy's statement to merge Hizbollah with the army, and the rejection of Hizbollah to that issue. Jumblatt sarcastically suggested why don't they merge the army with Hizbollah.

It is funny how they are dealing with the issue. They do believe they are a country inside the country and are dealing with it accordingly...

UN considers it a resisting militia

2006-03-27T09:18:00.000+03:00

It was published on this blog on February 16 and March 10 that Hizbollah is both a militia and a resistance. It has a militia structure while its function is most of the times resistance.

Yesterday, UN special envoy Terje Roed-Larsen was the first to conclude that a militia can be a resistance party as well in nature .

two related posts
http://newleb.blogspot.com/2006/02/resistance-or-militia-or-both-what-is.html

http://newleb.blogspot.com/2006/03/militia-in-structure-resistance-in.html

Delays so far...

2006-03-24T13:35:00.000+02:00

102 days and no Investigative Judge for Gebran Tueni assasination ...

47 days and the Prime Minister didn't yet accept the resignation of Minister Sabeh, current Minister of Interior. It is not clear if he is still the minister or not. Consitutionally he is still, and the acting minister in his place is not constitutional (appointment of acting is in the case of travel or medical case)

10 days passed since the deadline for removing Lahoud from office. The whole action plan of removing Lahoud was somehow suspended. Geagea's surprise??? we are still waiting

March14 bloc --- internal dialogue needed

2006-03-24T12:24:00.000+02:00

It is really obvious that March 14 bloc should have a serious internal dialogue.

An agreement should be reached on the following:
1- A common agenda on stand from Lahoud. Platform of the upcomming president, and possibly a list of nominees or a single candidate.
2- A common agreement on their stand from Hizbollah's arms. A defence strategy as alternative to their arms should also be prepared.
3- A common agreement on a common economic reform agenda.
4- A common stand from the electoral law.

This way, they and the public will have a clearer view of their current demands, priorities.

Only then, they can claim they want to rebuild the state. Till now, it is nothing but a bunch of promises without a clear overview of the future or what is the state that they want.

8 days passed after the deadline to remove Lahoud...

2006-03-22T12:18:00.000+02:00

Eight days passed since March 14 and still the majority bloc didn't keep its promise to remove Emile Lahoud from office.

What they lack is a clear strategy that they had almost a month ago... How to achieve their next goal?

All Lebanese agree on this...

2006-03-20T14:16:00.000+02:00

Among the few things all Lebanese agree on is:
www.geocities.com/new_leb/strida.JPG

Former Army General Michel Aoun: 2005 - 2006

2006-03-19T19:39:00.000+02:00

A race with time... What Aoun needs now is the OK of the Patriarch, or any of the constituencies of the parliament majority bloc for him to become the next President. He has to do that in the upcoming days... or weeks...

http://www.geocities.com/new_leb/aoun.pps

Nasib Lahoud: the next president or just a card in the dialogue

2006-03-18T21:42:00.000+02:00

the name of Nasib Lahoud has became very popular as the next President to be proposed by the March 14 bloc...

What is important now is:
- if he is their choice
- or just a first name to be placed on the table and turned down...

Most probably he is the second one, but if he was agreed upon already, then the whole dialogue is nothing but a reality show whose plot was previously finalized...

Excerpts from the UNIIIC Report of March 15, 2006

2006-03-15T08:26:00.000+02:00

Introduction:
- The commission does not deem it appropriate, at this stage to disclose further details of its work as this may unnecessarily threaten the security of witnesses, compromise the collection of future evidence and undermine the outcome of the investigation as a whole.
- The commission held two high level meetings with Syrian Government officials (one in Damascas and one in Beirut)
- An understanding has been reached with the Syrian government.It will be tested in the upcoming months.
- Uncertainties surrounding the actual length of the Commission’s mandate had led to the gradual departure of significant numbers of key staff.

Progress in the investigation:
- The commission has also further examined the possibility of an aboveground/underground or combination impact.
- Exact time of the blast: the time given by the initial fact-finding mission report (12:56:26) differs from the one given from the National Centre of Geophysics in Lebanon (12:55:05)
- While there still remains contradictory information on whether the blast/s occurred underground or above ground (as well as on the immediate events surrounding the attack), the Commission is pursuing promising lines of inquiry and achieving clarity in this respect. It has prioritized its evaluation of possible road works occurring in the vicinity of the explosion prior to the detonation.
- The individuals who perpetrated this crime appear to be very ‘professional’ in their approach, as they planned to a high percentage likelihood for success, and conducted the operation with high standards of individual and collective self-discipline. It must be assumed that at least some of those involved were likely experienced in this type of terrorist activity.
- The mooted delay of Mr. Hariri Motorcade and the apparent interference with telecommunications on February 14, 2005 have been largely dealt with by the Commission, and it has satisfied itself as to the findings and their relevance.
- The Commission also continues to investigate and evaluate the extent to which certain intercepted telephone conversations referred to previously provide any insight into the scope of involvement of key individuals in the assassination.
- The second report mentioned that a fund operated by the former Director of Surete Generale was being cross-checked with other lines of inquiry. This remains the case today and continues to be a factor for investigative consideration as and when appropriate.
- Sensitive sources and potential witnesses who appear to possess credible information relevant to the investigation have on occasion conditioned their cooperation with the Commission upon the premise that their information will not be divulged to the Lebanese authorities.
- Discussions began regarding witness protection support programs.

Technical Assistance on 14 other Cases:
- All Lebanese judges agree with the finding that the crime scenes were interfered with in the immediate aftermath of the blast/s, although not necessarily maliciously.
- Coordination between different security services needs to be improved
- The Security services use investigative techniques with no analytical capacity and electronic tools, and lack technical administrative resources such as computers and photocopy machines.

International Cooperation:
- Syria has signaled that it will fully comply should the Commission request the arrest of a Syrian official or individual suspected of involvement in the planning, sponsoring, organizing or perpetrating of the criminal acts at issue.
- The Syrian government has, through the SSJC, in particular in the last three months, formally complied with nearly all of the Commission’s previous requests.
- In February, the SSJC informed the Commission that it had examined the archives of the Military Intelligence and reviewed records related to the political situation in Lebanon, as requested by the Commission. A number of reports concerning the security and political situation in Lebanon were handed over to the Commission.
- French authorities provided valuable logistical assistance during the interview of a witness residing on French territory and are expected to facilitate additional witness and suspect interviews.
- The Commission had already highlighted the critical need for member states to make available to the Commission specific information of immediate relevance to the investigation.In conformity with the well-established practice of international judicial or law enforcement institutions, any such information provided on a confidential basis would not be disclosed and would be used for internal investigative purposes only.

Conclusion:
- A significant number of new lines of inquiry, identified since January 2006, have already enabled faster-than-expected progress in two important areas
- The Commission is fully aware of the limitations that its conservative approach to sharing case relevant information publicly and providing details on the pursuit of particular lines of inquiry may pose to the Council. The Commission would like to take this opportunity to assure Council members that this cautious approach is an integral part of its overall investigation strategy, and indeed, is standard investigation practice.

The full report is available:
www.lebanonwire.com

10 more hours and Lahoud will be removed from Office...

2006-03-14T14:00:00.000+02:00

10 more hours and March 14 bloc will remove Lahoud as Geagea promised.

Geagea promised that "they have a surprise for all those who doubt. Removing Lahoud before March 14 is a strict decision that was already taken. "
"Lahoud is 'tayir, tayir' before March 14, its easier than any one would think... "

Is it...

Related news

Aoun: After the Syrian Withdrawal, Syria will leave its instruments of terror

2006-03-13T15:50:00.000+02:00

"Following a Syrian withdrawal, it is quite conceivable that the Syrian regime will leave behind many of its instruments of terror and destruction as well as its paramilitary/intelligence apparatus. Therefore, it is imperative that Syrian withdrawal be accompanied by a complete disarmament of all armed elements. Only the legitimate armed forces of Lebanon can be entrusted with providing security to the Lebanese people. They are certainly capable of doing so when provided with a strong political leadership duly elected by the Lebanese themselves, rather than appointed by an occupying power as is the case today. Equally important, Lebanon will need certified tribunals to investigate and bring to justice all criminals who committed war atrocities and crimes against humanity."

A selection from the speech of Michel Aoun for Syria Accountability and Lebanon's Soverignty Restoration Act.

Full text:

http://www.tayyar.org/files/gma1/030917aoun_congressHearing.htm

Nasrallah: The cardinal and the Secretary General

2006-03-13T08:41:00.000+02:00

The top two files in Lebanon now that are being debated are the Presidential elections and the Hizbollah arms, both mainly controlled by religious figures Nasrallah.

Instead of raising his arms and praying, Nasrallah of Hizbollah, is responsible for negotiating on behalf of his other arms.

Also, instead of praying, Nasrallah of Maronites, is responisble for negotiating for his sect-seat called Lebanese Presidency, with more than half of the Lebanese leaders lined-up behind him.

Wishing one day a secular Nasrallah will come and ask the other two to go pray

Militia in structure & resistance in function

2006-03-10T15:04:00.000+02:00

Just like a person can be both a tennis player and a journalist at the same time. When you call him a bad athlete it doesn't mean he is not a good journalist and definitly it doesnt change the fact that he is both.
Consequently, he can have more than one quality or hobby.

For Hizbollah, saying that they are a group resisting the Israelis is not a contradiction to saying later that they are a militia that is outside the scope of the government. They are both. They are a militia in their structure and a resistance in their function. (although their resistance is not within Taef)

Liberating Shebaa through arms is a revolt on Taef accord...

2006-03-10T08:48:00.000+02:00

According to the Taef accord, a document that most Lebanese consider as the savior document that ended the civil war:

"Third. Liberating Lebanon fromthe Israeli occupation: Regaining state authority over the territories extending to the internationally-recognized Lebanese borders require the following.."

So, Taef mentions "INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNIZED LEBANESE BORDERS", not any other one. Accordingly, any border conflict with Syria is not part of the liberation from the Israeli occupation. It falls under border conflict and requires diplomatic ways to amend the internationally-recognized Lebanese borders through the proper channels. After doing so, we can liberate it from the Israeli occupation as it becomes part of our internationally recognized borders.

Now, according to Taef, its time to go back to the armistice agreement of 1949 with Israel and send the Lebanese army to the south. We can do so in coordination with Hizbollah to give its positions and arms to the Lebanese army. (we can sign an agreement with them on the defence strategy of the army and the transition period)

The argument that "Shebaa is still occupied, we need to keep Hizbollah arms" falls according to Taef.

Aoun and Jumblatt switching places..

2006-03-08T21:16:00.000+02:00

It was in 2002-2003 when Walid Joumblatt was attacking those who get the support of the US congress to impose sanctions on Syria. Aoun was the main Lebanese figure advocating such support. On the other hand Jumblatt was in his closest support with Hizbollah to the limit that he categorized them in the untouchable area despite of his alliances/stands when Aoun called them as a militia and a terrorist group functioning outside the scope of the government.

In 2005-2006 Walid Jumblatt is requesting from the US to impose sanctions on Syria and supports dismantling the militia Hizbollah, when Aoun strikes an alliance with Hizbollah and the pro-Syrian bloc.

Politics is fed by the amnesia of the people

Syrian Resistance vs Israeli violations

2006-03-07T13:23:00.000+02:00

The claims of Syria to keep Hizbollah before is that Israel is violating the Lebanese airspace and soverignty. Shebaa was one of the arguments but it was nothing but an argument.
Syria who claim to be the main Arab country in the "Arab Israeli" conflict did not resist a single Israeli since 1974. What is the Syrian reply to yesterday's Israeli violation to their airspace? Nothing probably... just like the previous 32 years..

A new April understanding regarding Hizbollah's arms

2006-03-06T08:11:00.000+02:00

Placing the issues related to Hizbollah's arms as an item on the Internal Dialogue agenda is not enough. It is not just an issue of debate among major Lebanese poles if a party has the decision of peace and war. This issue should be part of a pact to be signed between Hizbollah and the Lebanese government.

The Lebanese government should prepare to sign a pact with Hizbollah, specifying the role of Hizbollah in Lebanon for the coming two years. Something similar to the April understanding in 1996 that made Hizbollah agree on not attacking Israeli civilians.

Some issues related to the pact:
1- The Lebanese Government can not take over border security while the Paletinean arms are outside the camps and the government did not yet resotred its full control over all Lebanese soil.
2- The current government is in the process of reforming its Intelligence and armed forces which would need some time for them to be ready to take over all the southern border. They currently can not control the borders with Syria (around 70 border entry), nor ensure the saftey of Lebanese major figures.

3- The arms of Hizbollah should not be removed with the same way the Syrians were forced to leave Lebanon (ie: forced to leave) as the party will remain in Lebanon.

4- The decision of when, how, and where to use the weapons sholud not be a decision for Hizbollah to make.

a- In coordination with the Lebanese Army, if an Israeli (or an Israeli machine) crosses the blue line then Hizbollah in coordination with the army can reply by attacking the violators.

b- Restoring Shebaa farms should be done via diplomatic ways after getting the clearance from the Syrians that it is not for them.

5- The weapons can never be used as a political message in reply to any regional situation in Shebaa or elsewhere.

6- Failing to comply with the pact, the arms should be taken by the Lebanese army instantly.

7- The Lebanese army should start taking control from Hizbollah on a monthly basis so that after the end of the two years the army should have full control of the borders.

8- The two years can't be extended under any circumstances.

Baabda Aley and Constitutional Conflict ---- Updates

2006-03-03T04:25:00.000+02:00

A new candidate running for fun in Baabda Aley parliamentary elections to replace the vacant position.
In a previous post named "Baabda Aley and Constitutional Conflict" published on February 20, I mentioned that:

If any Maronite pays his nomination fee (10 Million Lebanese Pounds) and runs in Baabda Aley. March 14 coalition might be forced to re-admit legitmacy of thcurrent (president/not President)as he should sign the decree to call for elections. Failing to fill the vacant position within 60 days is also a violation to the constitution as well (that is March 17, 2006).

Now the funny part is that the one who nominated himself is just running for fun (he ran before for fun is the North elections):
He will cost the ministry a huge amount of money to organzie the elections (way more than his nomination fee), will make March14 bloc accept the Lahoud decree, and it will be fun if he would actually win as no one is taking him seriously...

National Dialogue: Conference vs Security

2006-03-01T15:26:00.000+02:00

It is very dangerous for the top 12 leaders to go to the Parliament amid the tension with Syria and Lahoud.

The security, I think, is directed more towards preventing protests, explosions.

What if any militia or armed group did an 'Oliver Cromwell' like attack on the House of Representatives?

The result will be very dangerous. Lahoud can impose a closed zone around their security square and hold them in his custody until further notice. In the name of preserving the constitution as they can be considered as violating the constitution and he can accuse them of preparing for a revolt against the Presidency and the nation. All major bloc leaders in Lebanon...

Hizbollah vs Israel killed Hariri

2006-02-27T08:10:00.000+02:00

Yesterday in a televised interview Sheikh Naim Kasem, vice secretary-general of Hizbollah replied to the concern that they have their own intelligence apparatus as: "our apparatus is only directed towards Israelis and their work in Lebanon, that is why we dont have any information and didnt participate in the investigations."

In this statement, he replied to the concern of MP Jumblatt on why they are not supporting the investigations with all the information they have.

Indirectly, he confessed that they believe its not Israel that is responsible for all these attacks, as their Intelligence is ONLY directed to Israel's work in Lebanon...

Sfeir for Presidency

2006-02-23T15:14:00.000+02:00

I think the definition of seculrism should be modified at least in Lebanon:
It should be the seperation of religion from public affairs "Unless when it is to our advantage."

Now, (among others)
Remains of Qornet Chehwan are behind the Maronite Cardinal...
Lebanese Forces are as well (as always) ...

Also Jumblatt requested from the Cardinal to call for a meeting that involves all Maronite leaders and figures to fix the conflict of the successor of Lahoud.

Even Mr. Nabih Berri said he is behind bkerki..

If the definition of secularism is modified, then as a secular I see the Cardinal of the Maronite Church as the most representative Maronite leader.

Sfeir for Presidency...

Presidency empty since November 2005--- March14 bloc says

2006-02-22T08:30:00.000+02:00

Yesterday the office of the President issued a statement that if the presidency was empty then all decisions that were taken including forming governments and their decisions should be cancelled... one of them is the pardon to Samir Geagea

Where is the Constitutional Council ???

2006-02-21T12:10:00.000+02:00

The Lebanese Constitution mentions the creation of a constitutional council to look in to the constitutionality of laws, acts and decrees.

The term of the current (2004) council was extended along with Lahoud in an unconstitutional way. Until now we dont have a council to look in to the petitions against some MPs regarding the 2005 elections.

Hopefully, in 2006 this council would be re-activated away from any political tension to safeguard the constitution...

Baabda Aley and Constitutional Conflict

2006-02-20T08:13:00.000+02:00

It is worth 10million Lebanese Pounds to create a constitutional problem in the country.
Now that all big blocs agreed on nomination of Mr. Pierre Dakash as the only candidate for the upcoming elections. Any Maronite, who have the minimum requirement to run for this vacant position can create a constitutional problem.

If any Maronite pays his nomination fee (10 Million Lebanese Pounds) . This means elections should take place (ofcourse Dakash will win) but it means that the current (President/not President) will have to sign the call for elections. March 14 coalition might be forced to re-admit his legitmacy as failing to fill the vacant position within 60 days is also a violation to the constitution.

Baabda Aley VS Baabda

2006-02-17T21:02:00.000+02:00

Toppling Lahoud became the main item on the March14 forces agenda.. Lahouds deadline is March14 until they will decide to topple him...
The problem that March14 forces will face is UNconstitutionality of Lahoud vs the constitutional deadline to call for Baabda Aley byelections March 17, 2006.

Will March14 forces re-admit that Lahoud is a President and request from him to call for elections through a decree or would they fall in to another constitutional problem. The best way out is to avoid having elections for this particular post and have one runner from all parties (tawafukeyyan).

Lahoud and March 14 groups...

2006-02-17T20:56:00.000+02:00

The March14 forces issued a statement yesterday saying that:

1- Lahoud is the last remaining representative of the Lebanese-Syrian security services that are accused of killing Hariri. He is unconstitutional, still taking orders from Syria and is meddling in the affairs of the government; Therefore his presidency should end.

2- The Lebanese should continue the Independence intifada by toppling Lahoud with a deadline March 14 2006.

3- If Lahoud doesnt resign till then, the March 14 majority bloc will topple him constitutionally.

==========

One, there is no new information in this statement, except that since the Intifada, we had elections based on a decree from Lahoud. The government was formed with consultations with him. He issued the decree that formed the current governmnt. He chaired many Council of ministers meetings. He blocked many decrees and held Council of Ministers meetings in Baabda. So whats new in him being the head of the Lebanese - Syrian security apparatus?

Two, what will happen now with the government. Will they stop meeting until one month, if not will their decrees require Lahoud's approval.

Three, did they all agree on the candidate (atleast the initial one) from among March 14 bloc. Its more democratic if they dont, but in March 14 coalition there are more than ten people related to candidates with a parliamentry block of some six people as majority.

Forth, the main focus shouldnt be on unconstitutionality of Lahoud but on their second part of the declarationthat we had to give Lahoud and Hizbollah a chance to show their alligence when embrassed by the Lebanese, and after several months they proved their loyalty is not to Lebanon.

Five, Its great to have back the spirit of the Bristol opposition in the sense of specifying the current battle despite of differences in stands regarding many issues. The current issue they have as a priority is to topple Lahoud. Next month they will have another priority that gathers them all.

Resistance or Militia or both... What is the current status of Hizbollah

2006-02-16T15:38:00.000+02:00

Many of the Lebanese militias fought against the Israeli invasion as militias resisting an occupier. The special status of Hizbollah made it only a resistance as it didnt take any part of the local Lebanese micro politics after Taef. The leadership of Hizbollah used to refuse to be part of any local Lebanese conflict, as they used to say: We have Israel to fight and a land to free.

Now that the land is free, Syria is out, and Hizbollah being an integral part of the day to day politics of Lebanon. Its status changed from a resistance against Israel. To an armed party inside the Lebanese government. Consequently, its a militia primiraly. Now they are still resisting to liberate the Shebaa Farms, and to protect the borders.

Mr. Hassan Nasrallah acknolwedged in the latest televised interview he had on NTV that his party is organizing 'reminder operations' every four five months which contradicts his stated objective to liberate the farms from the Israeli occupation. In other words, he is doing the 'reminder operations' to keep his weapons legitimate as resistance.

We should acknowledge the fact that in "New Lebanon", our government can not protect the 70+ border entry points with Syria that Jumblatt mentioned, can not expand its soverignty over many closed areas, and can not protect its national figures. All this make the current Lebanese formal bodies and security agencies incompetent to protect the South and being accountable for every rocket being bombed from Lebanon.

Integrating the party in the army will do a problem in the alligence of its men who believe in the Iran model of belief. The wilayet al fakeeh is more legitimate than the General of the Lebanese Army. If their leadership issue a takleef shar3i, they wont check with the Lebanese Army leadership about it. Unless if Hizbollah re-decide to make itself a defensive group against Israel. Then, we can have it as a seperate entity in the Army. If its Leadership takes a unilateral decision, it will be treated as a seperation movement in the army. A pre-condition for this is its withdrawal from the Lebanese poltics or else it will be a political party inside the army.

So, Hizbollah is a militia resisting some times and just a militia with its weapons just a plus for Syria in the negotiations with Israel or to Iran in the negotiations on its nuclear rights.

Now that in the Hariri post-2000 governments they got the south security privatized for them, the Lebanese Government should call them to official negotiations not in the Parliament as a praliamentary bloc but as a party negotiating with the Lebanese Government.

An internal April-understanding like pact should be signed with them to ensure when/how and why they can use their current arms.

Also, a timeline for disarming their forces should be set with a deadline not to exceed two years.

Resistance is a movement against an occupier. When the occupier leaves, so does the resistance to it...

Will the Parliament majority vote for Aoun as President

2006-02-15T15:25:00.000+02:00

Regardless of the way the March 14 coalition will choose to topple Lahoud, they will need the vote of Aoun's Block.

Who is the candidate for Presidency of March 14? Would it be from LF, Qornet, Tajadod, Hariri's Ghattas Khoury...
The majority they have is over six to seven seats and they have probably more than that as candidates...

I think they will eventually get Aoun in to Presidency to avoid FULL responsibility for the new Lebanon phase. They had to get Aoun so that to topple Lahoud and reunite the previous opposition. Other than that they will have to bare the consequences in the 2009 Parliamentary elections of being accountable for all the executive power in the current phase.

Do we need Aoun for the new phase?
I dont think we can handle another military man in power. If Lahoud forced his ministerial quota to every government. Aoun can do more since he is backed by a parliamentary bloc.
He can bloc each and any te3yeen decree that he doesnt like. If the current parliament majority opposes him, he can suspend the government with his 1/3 quota with Hizbollah-Amal ofcourse.

Lahoud's Removal: How to

2006-02-15T06:04:00.000+02:00

The people who protested on February 14 gave the March 14 leadership a second chance, the intifada IN the intifada was initiated. Now its time to be critical to avoid doing the same mistake of March 14. What the March 14 leadership gave: new elections altho based on the 2000 law and an alliance with Hizbollah that made us here now...

All the 'members of the majority bloc' are with removing Lahoud. Hureyyi camp is with this demand, since two months now without any single move towards that. We got the momentum back..

I think the issue now is not his UNconstitutionality since it can not be questioned by the Parliament that accepted to acknowledge his legitmacy after the decree to form the government, the consultations, and the other decrees he signed and meetings in Baabda that he chaired.

Passing a constitutional amendment to force a shorter term for him is disrespecting the constitution even if for a good cause this time.

Now there are some 'allegations' that the Parliament of any NORMAL country should react to either to clear the President from those allegations or just stop his term through the proper channels. The step can be take n from a positive perspective, atleast in the way it can be proposed.

the allegations include:
1- the statement of former Interior Minister Sleiman Franjieh and former PM Omar Karameh who explicitly said in the LBC documentary recently published on "2005 Independence" that:
A meeting was held in Baabda last year before the assassination of Hariri between the President, the SPEAKER, the PM and Minister of Interior, were the President requested to include the Director of General Security Jamil Sayyed.

The meeting was to discuss the ways to get according to them an electoral law that gets Syria a majority in the April 2005 parliamentary elections. This constitutes a ground for questioning /removing the President since the meeting was held in Baabda, he called for it, and participants in the meeting are announcing this. Also, it requires questioning from the perspective of the International Investigation as they said that a majority in the Parlimanet wasnt easy to get given Hariri's stubern stand not to include pro-Syria people on his Beirut lists and insisting to run in the hardest constituency.

2- According to items 125 and 126 of the 1 Mehlis report:

Colonel Ghassan Tufayli of the wire tapping -service in the Lebanese Military Intelligence said that several important people such as former presidents, prime ministers and deputies were permanently wiretapped. “The protocols were forwarded on a daily basis to General Raymond Azar and to the head of the army, General Michel Suleyman. According to Colonel Tufayli’s statement, General Raymond Azar sent the protocols to the Lebanese President and to General Ghazali, the head of the Syrian Military Intelligence Service in Lebanon.”

126. “According to Tufaily the Republican Guard Brigade also had an internal wiretapping service.”

3- Item 200 of the 1st Mehlis report:
Mr. Ahmad Abdel-Al of Ahbash has been "in frequent contact with Mahmoud Abdel-Al, his brother, who is also active in Al-Ahbash. Mahmoud Abdel-Al’s telephone calls on 14 February are also interesting: he made a call minutes before the blast, at 1247 hrs, to the mobile phone of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud and at 1249 hrs had contact with Raymond Azar’s mobile telephone.”

Now is the perfect time to react to Lahoud, if they dont they will be just a bunch of reactionary opposition who lost another opportunity to remove or atleast question Lahoud. Although Jumblatt for example can not be bllamed for this as he was with removing him since March 14, but the problem was with the LF-Kornet. The main thing that united all speakers yesterday and mainly their speeches was Removing Lahoud.

The file can be initiated by 1/2 +1 to initiate the Parliamentary Investigative Committee, after the report is finalized we will need Aoun for the two-thirds to remove Lahoud.

Assasination of Rafic Hariri: Thoughts about forming an International Tribunal

2006-01-13T03:14:00.000+02:00

Assassination of Rafic Hariri: Forming an International Tribunal

The Security Council acknowledged the request of the Lebanese government to form a tribunal of an international nature for the assassination of late PM Rafic Hariri and requested in its resolution 1644 (December 2005) from the Secretary General to assist the Lebanese Government in specifying the character of the international support needed.

The following are recommendations conducive to the formation and success of the tribunal.

The need to form an International tribunal

1- It provides a stable and neutral venue for the trial since the mere vote to establish the tribunal initiated a governmental conflict that has been ongoing for more than a month.

2- It makes an independent, transparent and sustainable trial possible; one that can operate for several years despite any political/economic instability in Lebanon or any of the related states.

3- It makes trying of non-Lebanese suspects easy.

4- It ensures continuity of International support through the Security Council as the tribunal will be considered as a subsidiary body under the Security Council. This will result in ensuring the cooperation of all member states with the tribunal.

5- It provides better immunity, loyalty, and security of judges as opposed to involving Lebanese judges.

6- It can impede the potential implementation of a special Presidential pardon given to the Lebanese President by the Lebanese constitution to provide pardon to any criminal, as the current or any future President might use his/her prerogatives to provide such a pardon. The nature of the tribunalDefinitions:

- ICTAH: International Criminal Tribunal for the Assassination of Hariri

- Non-involved state: a state that does not hold any suspect, did not participate in any mediation between Lebanon and Syria, is not a current voting member of the Security Council, and have not been involved in any media attacks on Syria or Lebanon.

- UN-SC: UN Security Council

Place, Jurisdiction and applicable law

1- The location should be a non-involved state, with relative economic and political stability. The municipal law of the hosting state should permit the formation of such tribunals.

2- Jurisdiction of ICTAH should be limited to the assassination of late PM Rafic Hariri and 22 others including former MP Bassel Fuleihan. All other side cases or related issues should be forwarded to the Lebanese Government through the proper channels, whenever they are encountered.

3- Jurisdiction of ICTAH should not be bound by time.

4- Main applicable law should be a duplicate of the Lebanese municipal law, with modifications to be made so that the applicable law of ICTAH becomes compatible with states that currently hold suspects: Syria, France and Turkey.

5- Initial pacts should be signed with the states mentioned under item 4. The pacts should identify the tribunal's stand with regards to issues like the death penalty, absentee trial and other technical matters related to the trial and specific laws of these states.

6- The UN-SC shall specify a clear structure for the tribunal, its sub-offices, their budget, staff…
7- The special Presidential pardon that the President of the Lebanese Republic can award to pardon any criminal shall not be applicable for criminals convicted by ICTAH. Financial issues

8- The government of Lebanon jointly with UN-SC should identify the sources of funding for ICTAH from non-involved states.

9- The UN-SC shall devise a clear financial plan identifying issues related to auditing and reporting to donor states and/or organizations in financial matters.

10- The UN-SC shall provide financial autonomy for each office inside ICTAH in order to avoid any conflict between offices in case of financial shortage. Appointment of Judges and Staff

11- The floor shall be open for International judges to nominate themselves, or be nominated by their respective states.

12- Judges who are citizens of involved states or of donor states shall be excluded from running.

13- The Lebanese government can decide by a three-forth majority to exclude judges from the list of applicants after providing a proper justification.

14- The UN-SC shall directly appoint the judges, if the Lebanese government fails to take a decision on the list within a period of three months starting when it officially receives the list.

15- The UN-SC shall also appoint the staff of the tribunal Logistics

16- UN-SC should initiate the tribunal through a resolution as soon as possible.

17- ICTAH should issue quarterly reports to the UN-SC to keep the council updated on the matter.

18- The sessions of the tribunal should be public and should be broadcasted by the Lebanese public Television at least (unless the television objects or is dissolved).

19- After the appointments, the Prosecutor should prepare a set of priorities and tentative time tables for his/her work.

20- ICTAH should sign witness protection programs with all states which accept to provide such support prior to starting the trials.

21- The Lebanese Government should appoint a liaison judge between the tribunal and the Lebanese government. The government and the tribunal must provide immunity and security for him/her and security for his/her family and close friends.

22- The above 21 items require the approval of the Lebanese government to be forwarded after that to the UN-SC via the UN Secretary General as specified in UN-SC resolution 1644, in consistency with the principle of state sovereignty.

23- The UN-SC shall approve the above 21 items after possibly modifying them and adopt a resolution to establish the ICTAH.